Forecast: Tesla will end the yr with a 30% loss
Let’s wait and see what happens next. If I had written this column every week ago, I might have said Tesla was a superb bet to lose 30% by the top of the yr. But shares rose greater than 10% this week on the positive Second quarter news. Despite the high number of car deliveries, it was a volatile yr for Tesla shareholders, with prices down 42% at one point. Our central thesis was that lower profit margins and increased competition would result in lower earnings forecasts. That still seems solid to me.
Forecast: Cryptocurrencies could possibly be volatile, but could end 2024 with a 50% gain
This point was a direct hit. After soaring in February, Bitcoin lost almost 20% between mid-March and early May.
Overall, Bitcoin only must rise barely over the subsequent six months to satisfy the 50% return forecast. Of course, I imagine the asset will ultimately be price little or no in the long run. Admittedly, I’m quite skeptical about cryptocurrencies.
Forecast: US elections in November shall be chaotic
We also predicted that this election yr could be more chaotic than most, regardless that US election years are historically quite positive for US stock markets. We shied away from making too many specific predictions about how a Biden/Trump victory would affect stock prices, but said that many market observers would cheer for a divided government.
Well, the headlines have definitely been chaos. While the remaining of the world watches in disbelief, the 2024 US election has to this point proven to be probably the most volatile election campaign in recent history – and maybe of all time. At this point Betting markets I feel it is a matter of luck whether Biden even runs because the Democratic Party nominee. Normally, a politician running against a convicted felon would have a simple win. On the opposite hand, a candidate running against an incumbent whose own party is not sure if he’s still fit for office would also normally have a simple win.
Given all these variables, we do not even know the best way to measure the extent of accuracy of this prediction. We reluctantly predicted a really narrow Biden victory, and that appears like it would be an extended shot now that Trump is a pretty strong betting favorite. However, we were firmly of the opinion that a divided government would result in a powerful end to the yr for US equities. This scenario could still be very likely. We will wait to totally assess it.
What stays of 2024?
After a really accurate round of predictions for 2023, it was statistically unlikely that we might repeat this feat in 2024. While we can have been mistaken about US technology, I feel we’ll get the large picture right by the top of the yr. Despite lots of negative headlines and general “bad mood” One of my key takeaways from the past six months is that global equity markets (and particularly American ones) should proceed to reward patient Canadian investors.
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