Automotive factory automation concept with 3D rendering robot assembly line with electric automobile … [+]
AI-powered automation may very well be the important thing to solving three big problems: immigration, low birth rates, and pensions. But oddly enough, automation is just not a planned policy solution to those and related problems. Why there have been all varieties of problems with the U.S. federal government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, Operation Warp Speed was not certainly one of them. Should AI-powered automation get the identical investment priority because the vaccine – as an alternative of the best way everyone treats “automation” defensively? Remember that Operation Warp Speed “was a public-private partnership initiated by the U.S. government to facilitate and accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.” Is this a model for investing in AI and automation?
AI and immigration
Image processing technology was applied to the robot to reap tomatoes in agriculture … [+]
Instead of, for instance, economically Arguments about why the US (and other countries) need immigrants, why don’t we get across the argument with an enormous government investment in automation that’s presupposed to contribute on to economic growth? Is there a possibility for a public-private partnership here? Obviously, many firms are pushing automation at a breakneck pace. They need to lower your expenses and increase their profitability by reducing their dependence on people. The progress is impressive. But the proposal here is an enormous public-private partnership to speed up automation and reply to the economically Gaps which might be to be closed through immigration.
There are obviously many the reason why people come to the USA and other industrialized countries. The economic argument is just not intended to diminish any of those motivations. Rather, the hypothesis is that the economically The arguments around immigration may very well be formulated very in another way today. We know, for instance, that many immigrants come to the United States to flee political persecution and violence and since they need a higher life for his or her families. That is all well and good, however the economically Politicians’ arguments for the necessity for more immigration may very well be influenced by the rapid investment in automation. Since “politicians” are, in fact, heat-seeking missiles for money and power, it’s inconceivable to know whether or not they would even consider arguments that do not fit perfectly with their personal agendas. But that being said, there are methods to make use of AI-powered automation to fulfill a few of the economic needs that immigration might – or won’t – meet.
Artificial insemination and low fertility rates
Now let’s take a look at human reproduction:
Concept of declining fertility. Depopulation, demographic crisis.
“The overall birth rate in the United States fell by 3% starting in 2022, reaching a historic low. This is the second consecutive year of decline, following a brief increase of 1% from 2020 to 2021. From 2014 to 2020, the rate declined steadily by 2% per year.”
(Note that “The fertility rate measures the number of live births per 1,000 women of childbearing age, often ages 15 to 44.”)
“A persistently low total fertility rate in the United States – specifically, a rate well below 2 – would lead to slower population growth, which in turn could lead to slower economic growth and fiscal challenges. While the decline is a relatively new challenge for the United States, other high-income countries have had fertility rates below replacement levels for several years and have attempted to mitigate this trend through policies.”
Automation can assist mitigate these trends. AI can provide differentiated efficiency improvements.
Is automation a solution to ageing societies? Well, if there may be a machine that replaces a nonexistent human – so long as the human needs to get replaced – is that every one bad? All the concerns about ageing societies shrinking on account of low birth rates can perhaps be alleviated by automation.
Retirements
Businessman holding black alarm clock with clockwise countdown from work to retirement.
The same argument that applies to low birth rates also applies to early or premature retirement. What difference does it make if someone leaves a job that will be automated?
We are told that retirements are increasing at an unprecedented rate:
“Today, the number of retirees is growing at a remarkable pace, outpacing the influx of new workers. This trend is leading to an unprecedented aging of the American population and bringing significant changes to the workforce, the economy and the global mobility industry.”
“Demand for labor stays strong, with about two job openings for each unemployed person. And with over 75 million baby boomers retiring sooner reasonably than later, it’s clear that employers need a robust workforce plan to interchange retiring staff.
“Filling the workforce gap presents a significant challenge. Relying solely on Generation X workers is not enough, and many Millennials may lack the necessary work experience. Foreign-born workers may face immigration hurdles, and not all roles are suitable for flexible or remote workers.”
If automation could ever play a task, that is it.
Automation Policy
I even have discussed this before:
“Do we need tax preparers? Car salesmen? Loan officers? Automation has only just begun, and as more and more employees quit, automation could take their place sooner than we think. Why wouldn’t Uber want to eliminate its biggest problem – drivers – with autonomous vehicles? Why wouldn’t all companies want to use ‘workers’ who work around the clock, never need vacation, never join a union, and never get sick? Cashiers? Postal workers? Gas station attendants (who are now almost nonexistent)? And many more.”
Honeywell reports some survey results with a deal with robotics:
“The productivity gains we see from … robotics have increased,” said John Dillon … “the technology has gotten better … (and) the costs of not automating have gotten higher.”
“That’s because a warehouse that normally requires 2,000 workers could use technology and warehouse management software to get by with just 200 people instead.”
Automation may very well be the reply to many economic problems. In 1982 (!) the federal government believed in the ability of automation through “federal efforts to promote automation (which included): (1) financial incentives for private sector action; (2) research stewardship; (3) technology transfer mechanisms; (4) support for engineering education; and (5) the development of standards to facilitate the integration of various components of automation systems.” But today – 40 years later – that’s the query that’s asked repeatedly: “What should the government do in the face of the impending automation apocalypse?”
Automation and its closest friend “AI” will not be the apocalypse. They are solutions to some difficult economic problems facing the US and developed countries. Yes, there will probably be job losses and it’s inconceivable to perfectly coordinate the introduction of automation with immigration, birth rates and pensions. But the hypotheses should no less than be tested. It could also be that planned automation can reduce some economic burdens – perhaps even quite a bit. The technology is prepared. The firms are ready. But will politicians support Operation Automation? Or will they deal with other things?
