The 2024 presidential election has gone from déjà vu to an entire recent game – and it is time to rethink all assumptions about what aspects and which voters will determine the final result of this race.
Although we don’t yet know exactly how likely candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will conduct their presidential campaign, we do know exactly which voters will have to be won over and persuaded for a successful campaign to emerge victorious in November.
This yr, polls have consistently shown that younger, single voters are a critical demographic for each Democratic and Republican campaigns. These voters have only known a digital world where all the pieces they need or need is only a click away, including a date. One in seven voters has used Tinder within the last yr.
Pollsters Global Strategy Group and Tunnl teamed up for an independent, non-partisan poll commissioned by Match Group that focused on investigating the attitudes of young, single voters who’ve recently used a web-based dating app– we call them “Tinder singles.” Young voters generally show less motivation to vote than their older, married counterparts. But our survey found that Tinder singles, who make up 44% of all single voters under 36, buck this trend – they’re highly engaged.
80 percent of Tinder singles say politics is significant to their personal identity, in comparison with just 59 percent of young, voting-age Americans who don’t use Tinder. This level of political and electoral engagement shows that these individuals form a vital voting bloc that can determine who wins or loses the upcoming election.
One of essentially the most striking features of Tinder singles is their unusual political flexibility. Unlike older, married voters, who are inclined to view elections through a rigid partisan lens, Tinder singles are easier to steer.
Common assumptions about Tinder singles and their party affiliation with the Democratic Party seem outdated, as increasingly of them discover as independent or Republican. This flexibility signifies that Tinder singles will not be committed to at least one side or viewpoint, making them a highly strategic voting bloc that might help the party or candidate succeed that may motivate them to vote. These will not be party voters, but issue voters, and their participation will depend upon whether the candidates address their issue-based concerns.
The study also shows that the gender gap amongst Tinder singles is growing, with young, single women becoming increasingly politically distant from their male counterparts. While female Tinder singles usually tend to discover as Democrats or liberals (57% of our female respondents leaned Democrat, in comparison with 42% of men), our research shows that almost half of female Tinder singles say they might not vote within the upcoming election. Young, single women are particularly disillusioned with the political process, with 58% believing politicians usually tend to ignore them. This apathy is a critical issue that each one campaigns must address, as this group’s political engagement will significantly impact the election final result.
Tinder singles will not be single-issue voters. They place loads of importance on broader economic issues, with inflation, cost of living, jobs, wages and reproductive freedoms high on their list of concerns. In particular, issues around reproductive rights have emerged as a key dealbreaker, especially for the group of young women searching for a reason to vote: 30% cite abortion and reproductive rights as an important issue. Addressing these concerns and issues is central to any campaign.
Successful campaigns are characterised not only by a transparent, compelling message, but additionally by identifying the voters they will mobilize. When George W. Bush ran for re-election twenty years ago, he broadened his base by appealing to white, working-class men. Thus was born the thought of ”NASCAR dads.” When President Obama ran for re-election in 2012, he needed to win over the so-called “Walmart moms,” who had largely voted for him in 2008 but now faced economic challenges and needed to save lots of every dollar.
Like Walmart mothers and NASCAR dads before them, Tinder singles are uniquely positioned to find out the final result of this election. As we approach the 2024 election, they represent a dynamic and influential group that might shape not only the November vote, however the political landscape for many years to come back.
The high level of engagement of Tinder singles, combined with the potential for this voting bloc to drop out, makes them key to any successful campaign. Their commitment, persuasiveness and robust concerns mean that this group have to be a critical focus for campaigns. To secure the votes of Tinder singles, or make sure that they vote in any respect, candidates must hearken to and consider their concerns. In an election as hotly contested as this one, the votes of Tinder singles could well be the deciding consider who wins and who loses.
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