The evaluation relies on 15-year rolling monthly windows from 1965 to 2025 and might be improved in future research using parametric Monte Carlo simulations with moment adjustment or bootstrapping from observed returns.
Future research could also include longer time horizons, multi-factor portfolios, additional asset classes, dynamic payout policies, and systems-based risk management techniques.
Distributions were set as a percentage of the portfolio slightly than a set initial dollar amount, which was each practical and behavioral. However, there are lots of other acceptable and commonly used ways to make distributions, equivalent to: B. probably the most common starting amount of 4%, which is then adjusted linearly to inflation (CPI). Future research could examine how different portfolio designs affect different payout methods.
Appendix and citations
Data source: Compustat.
Calculation: Hartford Equity Modeling Platform.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in US Urban Average [CPILFESL]retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, January 9, 2026.
Style definitions:
Top 500 Value: The top 500 U.S. stocks rating above 30% based on total value defined by multiple equally weighted valuation metrics to provide an aggregate valuation metric. Valuation metrics include: P/E, EBITDA/EV, operating money flow/EV, sales/EV and B/P return (used only in financials and real estate as a proxy for EBITDA/EV), then capitalization weighted.
Low Volatility Top 500: The top 500 U.S. stocks rank in the highest 30% based on a composite volatility rating defined by multiple equality-weighted volatility measures to provide an aggregate volatility measure. Volatility metrics include three-year weekly beta and six-month every day standard deviation, then capitalization-weighted.
Top 500 Low Volatility VMQ: Top 500 U.S. stocks at top 50%, based on a composite volatility rating defined by multiple equality-weighted volatility measures to provide an aggregate volatility measure. Volatility metrics include three-year weekly beta and six-month every day standard deviation, then capitalization-weighted. Then reach the highest 50% based on the combined rating of fifty% value, 30% momentum and 20% quality. The combined rankings for corporations within the financial and real estate sectors are assigned weights of 65% “value” and 35% “momentum”. Composite value defined by multiple equally weighted valuation metrics to acquire an aggregate valuation metrics. Valuation metrics include: P/E, EBITDA/EV, operating money flow/EV, sales/EV and B/P return (used only in financials and real estate as a proxy for EBITDA/EV), then capitalization weighted. Composite momentum equally weights the past 12 monthly ex-1 returns and the past 6 ex-1 month returns to provide an aggregate momentum metric. With composite quality, gross profitability is about in relation to total assets.
Top 500 Growth: The top 500 stocks within the U.S. are above 30% based on five-year sales growth, then capitalization-weighted.
Top 500 Cap Weighted: US top 500 stocks, cap weighted.
Top 500 equally weighted: US top 500 stocks, equally weighted.
