What the US-Iran Ceasefire Means for Bitcoin

If you read this column frequently, you understand this wasn’t surprising for 2 reasons. First, BTC’s cyclical highs often occur at the tip of the 12 months after the BTC halving (on this case, 2024). And secondly, because BTC’s cyclical crashes up to now have been well over 50%.

However, BTC investors benefited from its resilience in the primary month of the US-Israel-Iran war, when the asset significantly outperformed the stock market or gold. In fact, BTC experienced a pointy increase from $63,000 to $81,000 in February and March 2026. Unfortunately, this was short-lived as BTC quickly declined again, reaching around $60,000 in early June 2026.

Will BTC rally throughout 2026? More on this below.

What can we expect from BTC this 12 months?

Although the investment markets, including BTC and crypto, are largely unpredictable, there are specific historical patterns that might help us determine the best way we predict the market will perform. Currently, the next is a crucial historical pattern that would attract investors’ attention.

Historically, BTC has bottomed a couple of 12 months after its cyclical peak. I wrote about this on this column just a few months ago. Of course, there isn’t a guarantee that this pattern will repeat itself, but when it does, you may expect the market to tug on for several months before the bear market ends at the tip of 2026. Keeping this larger context in mind, it is not any surprise that BTC was unable to take care of the gains it made in February and March this 12 months.

In the previous two market cycles, BTC prices fluctuated – from flat to downwards – from the second quarter of the 12 months to December of the identical 12 months. The same pattern emerged in 2022 and 2018. While I feel that is a crucial data point for crypto investors, we’re all ultimately on the mercy of what happens within the US-Iran war – and its impact on the markets. In this regard, there could also be cause for celebration, as discussed below.

What the US-Iran ceasefire means for BTC

As I even have explained in previous editions of this column, the war between the US and Iran is the largest market mover lately. Simply put, the war significantly disrupts and reduces global oil supplies. This results in a rise in the value of oil, which results in an increase in inflation worldwide, as oil (in a single form or one other) is a serious input cost in all sectors of the economy.

The US and Iran reportedly agreed on a 60-day ceasefire extension on June 18, 2026. It is widely reported that the Strait of Hormuz shall be opened and Iran will gain access to about half of its roughly $24 billion in frozen assets. This agreement provides just 60 days to barter the core issues that supposedly led to the war in the primary place. While I welcome this exemption from war – especially for the people at the guts of the suffering – I’m not entirely convinced that the agreement is not going to be sabotaged by the US, Israel or Iran.

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However, it’s a positive sign for investors that the oil market breathed a sigh of relief. The NYMEX crude oil price has fallen by roughly $8 (10%) up to now few days because the deal was announced and by roughly $30 (30%) since May 19, 2026, as shown within the NYMEX one-month price chart below.

Source: Google Finance As of: June 18, 2026.

Can BTC rally on this positive geopolitical news? Yes, so long as the autumn in oil prices significantly dispels fears of high inflation and the associated higher rates of interest. However, whether this succeeds or not depends upon the success of the (potentially fragile) ceasefire – and the view that the brand new Kevin Warsh, the brand new chairman of the United States Federal Reserve, takes over rates of interest.

Cryptocurrency price fluctuations are common

Cryptocurrencies corresponding to BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB and others are speculative and highly volatile assets which can be subject to significant price fluctuations. Even stablecoins that look like “safe” might be dangerous in the event that they should not sufficiently backed by real-world assets.

Investing in Bitcoin and other crypto coins involves significant market, technology and regulatory risks. Only spend money on cryptocurrencies when it aligns along with your broader investment goals, time horizon, and risk profile, and all the time remain vigilant against crypto scams.

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About Aditya Nain

Aditya Nain is an writer, speaker and educator who writes about Canadian investing, personal finance and crypto. He is co-author of two books and taught at universities for 12 years.