2025 was a milestone yr for BTC and other cryptocurrencies. The passage of the GENIUS Act within the US, which regulates US dollar stablecoins, confirmed crypto’s status as a mainstream asset. Equally essential has been the proliferation of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Canada, the United States and other countries. Investors not must jump through hoops or navigate the crypto ecosystem to speculate in BTC, Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), or other cryptocurrencies. These days, accessing cryptocurrencies is as easy as purchasing an S&P 500 Index ETF or an S&P/TSX Composite Index ETF.
How has BTC performed as an investment in 2025? Although it fell a comparatively modest 7.32% from the start to the tip of 2025, investors experienced sharp ups and downs all year long. Here’s how much BTC gained or lost in each quarter of 2025.
What the Venezuela Crisis Means for BTC
The yr 2026 is off to a wild start. US special forces invaded Venezuela, captured the country’s leader Nicholas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores and flew them to New York to face charges.
How does this affect BTC? BTC trades in two ways: sometimes as a refuge like gold, and sometimes like a technology stock that continues to rise during times of market optimism and enthusiasm. In the weeks because the start of this yr, BTC has traded like a safe-haven asset, gaining on rising geopolitical tensions exemplified by US military motion in Venezuela.
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From the start of 2026 to today (mid-January 2026), BTC has gained over 8% and gold has increased by around 5%. Why so? Much of the geopolitical uncertainty lately is brought on by actions or statements made by the US government. Therefore, investors are in search of assets which might be – not less than partially – independent of the influence of the US government.
Enter gold and BTC. Both are globally traded assets that are usually not controlled by the United States or every other country. Additionally, each are viewed by many investors as alternative types of money. In fact, gold and BTC are sometimes grouped together as hard assets; That is, assets whose value can’t be easily manipulated or increased by governments, including the United States.
Does this mean that the worth of BTC will proceed to rise this yr so long as geopolitical uncertainty persists? It’s not that straightforward.
BTC’s fate in 2026 will depend upon inflation and rates of interest
While BTC – like gold – is rising on account of geopolitical uncertainty, it is usually (somewhat paradoxically) seen as a dangerous asset. In other words, similar to stocks, they gain significantly in low rate of interest regimes when the market has ample liquidity. For BTC to achieve significantly in 2026, inflation would must be low (particularly within the US, the world’s largest capital market) and rates of interest would must remain low.
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US inflation data is currently encouraging, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 at 2.7% on an annual basis. This is consistent with expectations and throughout the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) comfort zone, meaning the Fed is probably not in a rush to lift rates of interest. This is positive news for BTC.
The chart below shows CPI trends from 2021 to the last print for December 2025. As the chart shows, the CPI has remained relatively low – within the 2% to three% range – for well over a yr, reflecting weak crude oil prices and efficiency gains from the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI).
Source: cnbc.com As of: January 13, 2026
Where BTC will go in 2026 will depend in no small part on the worth of oil, the further adoption of AI by large global firms and its impact on inflation.
Cryptocurrency price fluctuations are common
Cryptocurrencies corresponding to BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB and others are speculative and highly volatile assets which might be subject to significant price fluctuations. Even stablecoins that seem like “safe” will be dangerous in the event that they are usually not sufficiently backed by real-world assets.
Investing in Bitcoin and other crypto coins involves significant market, technology and regulatory risks. Only spend money on cryptocurrencies when it aligns together with your broader investment goals, time horizon, and risk profile, and at all times remain vigilant against crypto scams.
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