When a panel flew from Alaska Airlines’ 737 Max 9 plane in mid-air in January, Boeing’s safety standards and leadership got here to the fore. Since then it has slowed down Pace of production and deliveries from the market leader and its German rival Airbus have continued to say no.
As the Seattle-based aircraft maker grapples with the fallout from the accident while also looking for a brand new CEO, it sparked discussions about whether a 3rd contender could enter a world aviation market dominated by Airbus and Boeing specifically a state-supported Chinese market COMAC.
The China-based airline manufacturer has been working for well over a decade to construct a difficult airliner that may shake up the strongholds of Boeing and Airbus. COMAC remains to be small, with only five of its aircraft flown by one in every of the country’s largest airlines, China Eastern Airlines. But a shortage of aircraft amid high travel demand, Boeing’s shaky fame and the C919’s big debut in Singapore last month all point to a gap within the aviation market that may gain advantage COMAC because it sets its sights on a bit of the aviation pie .
What is COMAC about?
The Chinese company began work on its narrow-body aircraft in 2008 and production began three years later. Its C919 jets are actually considered possible competitors to Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’ 320 aircraft. They were certified by the aviation authority in China in September 2022 and flew their first aircraft commercially of their home country a yr ago.
The plane maker’s goal has at all times been to displace the 2 giants, and senior aviation industry executives have recognized COMAC’s potential as a competitor. Aviation consultancy IBA estimates COMAC will deliver nine jets in 2024 – lower than a 3rd of Boeing’s monthly deliveries and highlighting the tall task facing the Chinese group.
But it’s already attracting greater interest from airlines and will gain market share in China and the remaining of Asia before setting its sights on the remaining of the world.
“The challenges facing Boeing have sharpened our concentrate on the opportunities that lie ahead for COMAC. The query is: Can COMAC profit from Boeing’s weakened position within the short term?” Mike Yeomans, director of valuations and consulting at IBA, said Assets.
IBA estimates suggest COMAC will capture 4% of worldwide narrowbody aircraft deliveries, giving it a market share of just over 1% by 2030. Although it might take years for this increase to extend, it’s a start, helped by Boeing’s uncertainties and the will to travel. Airbus also benefited from this these trendsbecause it has gained market share amid the continued crisis.
Yeomans also noted that “the C919 has a great opportunity to gain market share, particularly in its home market,” as narrow-body aircraft from Airbus and Boeing have largely sold out this decade.
It’s still unclear whether Boeing’s problems directly boosted demand for COMAC aircraft.
Will COMAC make progress soon?
While there are actually more tailwinds for COMAC than ever before, one in every of COMAC’s biggest challenges is getting certified by key authorities outside of China. The China-based group’s influence is currently quite limited, particularly since it just isn’t certified with US and European regulators, and that’s crucial if it hopes to pose “a credible threat to the current duopoly in the global narrowbody market.” Market,” said Yeomans.
Another open query is whether or not COMAC is as much as the challenge of accelerating production as demand increases.
“COMAC production rates have been far lower and inconsistent over time, so we do not expect the dynamics to change significantly in the near future,” said John Mowry of Alton Aviation Consulting Assets, referring to the ability dynamics between Airbus, Boeing and COMAC. However, he added that there was scope for “significant demand” within the narrowbody aircraft market within the medium and long run.
The mark COMAC leaves on its current and future customers by way of quality control, on-time delivery and more could also determine whether it has a future in breaking the shared control of its German and American counterparts.
“The extent to which it displaces opportunities for Airbus and Boeing will depend on its operational performance and reliability with launch operator China Eastern and others as they begin deliveries.”
Skepticism aside, the whole lot is brewing at COMAC – two sorts of C919 have been revealed in progress and received 50 jet orders from Tibet Airlines in February. It might take some time for COMAC to interrupt up a duopoly, but it surely appears to have a tiny foot within the door for now.
