Friday, March 13, 2026

Study led by a Kellogg professor at Northwestern University: Failure is overrated

Study led by a Kellogg professor at Northwestern University: Failure is overrated

You know the axioms: success is built on failure; failure is a trademark of innovation; the one absolute failure is giving up. Objectively successful people have long given advice on tips on how to take care of defeat – from Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates who said: “It is good to celebrate successes, but it is more important to learn from failures,” to the entrepreneur Mark Cuban who wrote, “No one will know or care about your failures, and neither should you. You just have to learn from them…” However, recent research suggests that the perceived advantages of failure are overrated.

The link between failure and success may not only be inaccurate but in addition harmful to society, in response to a study published last week in Journal of Experimental Psychology: GeneralResearchers at Northwestern, Cornell, Yale and Columbia universities conducted eleven studies with greater than 1,800 participants and located that folks overestimate the frequency with which failure turns into success. Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, PhDAssistant Professor at Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern Universityled the team.

“We are just trying to understand what is holding people back from true resilience,” she says Assets. “Business leaders prefer to say that failure is motivating. [this view] might make you just a little less afraid of failure. When failure occurs, you will be less inclined to take the lively steps that result in actual resilience.”

Failure can take countless forms, but Eskreis-Winkler and her colleagues defined it as any event that didn’t achieve the specified goalThey viewed success as a corrective motion that achieved or made progress toward a previously unattained goal.

In one a part of the study, participants were asked to predict the likelihood that a nurse, lawyer, or teacher would pass a licensing exam after failing one. Participants overestimated the success rates in each occupation. For example, they predicted a 58% pass rate for lawyers who retook the bar exam, while the actual rate was 35%. Similarly, participants overestimated the share of scholars who retook and passed the General Education Diploma exam.

“One could describe this whole phenomenon as a consequence of Optimism bias“, says Eskreis-Winkler, “a bent to be overly optimistic about many things in life, including, on this particular case, the likelihood that we recuperate from failure.”

Failures in business and health

The advantages of failure are usually not overestimated, but reasonably misunderstood, so Rick Hunt, PhDDirector of the Doctoral Program in Management on the Virginia Tech Pamplin College of Business.

“No matter how you feel about the benefits of failure, you are probably wrong,” says Hunt Assets by email. “Nowhere have the benefits of failure been more enthusiastically embraced than in the research and practice of entrepreneurship. Failure is an inevitable aspect of the entrepreneurial journey – and is far more common than commercial success – so academics have worked hard to understand the causes and consequences of failure.”

The belief that failure is important to entrepreneurial growth has change into so exaggerated that it borders on romanticism, says Hunt. He points out that lots of the outstanding entrepreneurs who wear failure as a badge of honor didn’t should risk their roof over their heads to start out a business. On the opposite hand, failure has been destigmatized.

“Neither valorizing nor denigrating failure is right or useful, in entrepreneurship or in any other human endeavor. The question is where the pain of failure lies and where the benefits of failure lie,” says Hunt. “In entrepreneurship, the pain typically falls on the individual, while the benefits accrue to society as a whole. That is, individuals learn valuable lessons from their mistakes, but rarely reap the benefits of those lessons.”

Overestimating the advantages of failure also can have devastating health consequences, as Eskreis-Winkler’s research shows.

In one a part of the study, participants were asked to estimate the likelihood that somebody with persistent opioid dependence disorder would enter a treatment program after an overdose. They predicted 51%, in comparison with the actual rate of 17%. Another group was given the identical task but was not told concerning the overdose “failure.” They estimated a more accurate rate of 33%, leading researchers to conclude that mention of failure, not optimism bias, is the explanation people overestimate success.

When participants were asked to estimate what percentage of heart attack survivors made healthier lifestyle changes, they again overestimated their estimate: 62% in comparison with the actual 47%. That means participants falsely believed that 32,000 heart attack survivors within the U.S. would see their health improve, the researchers found.

“I think everyone wants to be resilient,” says Eskreis-Winkler. Assets. “The common message ‘failure is fuel, it’s a stepping stone to success’ is so well-intentioned. The goal is really to encourage resilience.”

The advantages of failure are usually not a lot overrated as misunderstood, says Dr. Rick Hunt, director of the doctoral program in management at Virginia Tech’s Pamplin College of Business.

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Coming back: Inspiration will not be the identical as motivation

One reason people are inclined to overestimate others’ ability to recuperate, in response to the study, is that additionally they overestimate the worth others place on their mistakes.

“What really gets in the way of resilience is that when people fail, they shut down, stop paying attention and retreat,” says Eskreis-Winkler. “It doesn’t matter if you retreat because you’re afraid of failure or if you retreat because you’re too optimistic about failure. What you really need is a clear view of the actual probability of what will happen after failure.”

To temper your expectations, that you must understand the difference between inspiration and motivation, she says. With graduation season in full swing, for instance, you will have been inspired by a recent graduation speech. But did lingering feelings of inspiration after the ceremony actually motivate you to take positive motion?

The final a part of Eskreis-Winkler’s research sheds light on the policy implications of correcting misguided beliefs about failure. Participants who were informed about recidivism statistics were more prone to support taxpayer dollars for the rehabilitation of former prisoners.

“You just tell people how quickly you recover from failure. Once you correct that overly optimistic view, it’s like a sobering wake-up call for people,” she says. “You realize it’s not that likely that it’s just going to happen on its own.”

As painful as failure could also be, entrepreneurs specifically should allow it to ground them, says Hunt.

“The ‘Phoenix Effect’ is a nice idea – and a very American, Algerian concept – but it rarely happens,” says Hunt. “People have the resources for one or maybe two attempts to do something right, but then become fertile ground for future efforts by others.”

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