The evolving landscape of the cannabis industry outside the U.S. reflects the early stages of growth within the United States that we described in our previous article on this series. As recreational cannabis markets emerge, the patron base is expanding from on a regular basis enthusiasts, who may even grow their very own cannabis, to a broader demographic. Across the U.S., younger people of all backgrounds are selecting cannabis over alcohol for a fun Saturday night, while older populations are discovering its advantages in pain relief and treating various health conditions.
These market readiness trends show what to anticipate in regions comparable to Europe, Latin America, Africa, Oceania and Asia over the subsequent decade. Governments play a vital role as watchdogs on this development, and regulatory reforms for access to cannabis vary widely all over the world.
A world tour of cannabis regulations
In , expected regulatory reforms and growing acceptance of each medical and recreational use of cannabis are contributing to robust growth within the cannabis sector. The European market is becoming increasingly sophisticated, with the regulatory deal with consistency and compliance. We consider the European cannabis industry is on the cusp of great change, driven by a wave of regulatory developments.
Countries comparable to Germany, Malta and Luxembourg are in various stages of legalizing or expanding legal access to cannabis, indicating a broader trend towards liberalization across the continent. Germany is currently debating whether to establish a regulated marketplace for adult-use cannabis, which could set a precedent for other European Union countries.
Additionally, the EU’s changing position on CBD – recognizing it as a novel food – provides a legal framework that would boost the expansion of the CBD market. These regulatory changes, together with increasing public support for cannabis legalization, will result in significant growth and innovation within the European cannabis industry over the subsequent decade. With several EU countries having already legalized cannabis in some form, the region shows potential for significant market expansion, particularly as regulations evolve and export opportunities increase.
has been on the forefront of cannabis regulatory reform, with countries like Uruguay and Colombia leading the best way in legalizing it for medical and adult use. In the approaching years, Mexico could fully legalize cannabis, which might have a big impact on the regional market and potentially create one among the most important legal cannabis markets on this planet. Brazil’s expanding medical cannabis program and Argentina’s recent regulations allow home cultivation and dispensary sales for medical purposes. This illustrates the broader trend towards liberalization in Latin America. These developments, combined with the region’s favorable climate for cannabis cultivation, are expected to draw significant international investment and increase the importance of Latin America in the worldwide cannabis market.
Interest in growing cannabis is growing for each local consumption and export. While regulatory and infrastructural challenges hinder the market’s full potential, the African cannabis industry is poised for growth, supported by regulatory advances in countries comparable to South Africa, Lesotho and Zimbabwe, which have made strides in legalizing and regulating cannabis for medical and industrial purposes.
A landmark 2018 court ruling in South Africa decriminalized private cannabis use, but there was significant confusion over the foundations, highlighting the necessity for regulatory adjustments. However, South Africa’s efforts to create a legal framework for business cultivation and trade underscore the region’s potential. Lesotho became a pioneer in Africa by issuing licenses for the cultivation of medical cannabis in 2017. It was also the primary country to export legal cannabis. This heritage, in addition to the country’s ideal growth climate, is increasingly attracting foreign investment. As more African countries rethink their cannabis laws to reap the economic advantages, the continent could change into a significant player in the worldwide cannabis supply chain.
is a pacesetter in medical cannabis. Australia’s progressive medical cannabis laws and up to date proposals for further liberalization, including possible pathways to recreational legalization, highlight the country’s growing market. Although New Zealand did not pass recreational cannabis laws in a recent referendum, the country is continuous to expand its medical cannabis program. These regulatory developments, in addition to ongoing research and international trade opportunities, position Oceania to attain significant growth and innovation in cannabis cultivation, production and distribution.
represents a fancy cannabis regulatory landscape, with countries like Thailand taking halting steps toward liberalization by legalizing cannabis and removing its narcotic designation. The launch of medical cannabis clinics and pharmacies underlines Thailand’s ambition to be a pacesetter within the Asian cannabis market. However, Thailand’s latest Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin recently stated that her government would “correct” its cannabis policy and limit its use to medicinal purposes. Thailand can also be considering introducing a wonderful for recreational users.
Meanwhile, countries like South Korea and Japan are cautiously expanding access to medical cannabis and CBD products, respectively. Unfortunately, strict drug laws across the region remain a significant barrier to development. As societal attitudes evolve and the economic potential of cannabis is increasingly recognized, regulatory reforms in select Asian countries could provide significant growth opportunities over a decade within the local cannabis sector.
The international growth outlook
Given all this, what a part of the world should a curious cannabis investor deal with? Below we forecast annual growth rates for various regions based on current trends, legal reforms, theological advances, demographics, changes in societal attitudes and industry reports through April 2023.
Projected annual growth rates
| region | 1-year growth rate | 5-year growth rate | 10-year growth rate |
| Europe | 9% – 13% | 21% – 25% | 19% – 23% |
| Latin America | 8% – 11% | 19% – 23% | 23% – 27% |
| Africa | 7% – 9% | 15% – 20% | 20% – 24% |
| Oceania | 10% – 15% | 23% – 27% | 21% – 25% |
| Asia | 5% – 10% | 13% – 17% | 18% – 22% |
Europe and Oceania are emerging as frontrunners in near-term market growth potential, driven by ongoing legalization movements and progressive regulatory frameworks. Latin America, Oceania and Africa are considered promising markets with significant longer-term growth prospects, depending on addressing existing regulatory and infrastructural challenges. Asia’s complex regulatory environment makes for a cautious growth outlook, although with notable exceptions that time to latest opportunities.
The opportunity
This overview provides policymakers and investors with insight into the potential expansion of the cannabis industry. For investors, assessing the nuanced interplay between regulatory developments and market growth in numerous global regions is crucial.
With the US accounting for 95% of worldwide cannabis sales, it understandably attracts essentially the most attention from investors. However, we advise those entering the world of cannabis investing to broaden their perspectives. International markets could also be small, but their growth potential presents significant opportunities. While the United States slowly navigates a maze of incoherent rules and self-imposed market fragmentation, other countries are pursuing more coherent and comprehensive approaches and offering lucrative international opportunities.
Photo credit: ©Getty Images / Rudenkoi
Suggested reading
Barney’s Farm. (2023). How cannabis is shaping latest global markets!
To the gasoline. (2023). Africa is keeping pace with cannabis and other global weed reform efforts.
Cannabis Butter Digest. (2023). Colombia’s legal cannabis industry faces regulatory and political challenges.
European Monitoring Center for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA). (2023). European Medicines Report 2023: Trends and Developments.
High times. (2023). New report predicts the worldwide recreational cannabis market will nearly double by 2027.
Marijuana index. (2024). The emerging European cannabis market and its impact on global dynamics.
MJ Biz Daily. (2023). Global cannabis market trends for 2023.
Prohibition partner. Various reports.
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. (2023). World Drug Report 2023.
