Tech stocks will underperform the TSX Composite
Similar to our Canada-US bet explained above, if we define technology stocks because the Nasdaq 100 (the 100 largest stocks on the Nasdaq exchange), the TSX Composite has not beaten technology stocks. However, the Nasdaq is up about 6.5% because the start of July, while the TSX Composite is up 15% over the identical period.
Canadian GDP per capita would proceed to say no
Unfortunately, we got hit on the pinnacle here. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita fell over the course of 2024. We have now suffered six quarters in a row of declines in per capita GDP. Since 2014In terms of GDP per capita growth, Canada ranks twenty seventh among the many 30 advanced economies.
Adjusted for immigration, the Canadian economy has remained virtually neutral for 10 years now. Here’s a take a look at the divergence of our economy in comparison with that of our largest trading partner.
This is what the long run will seem like if current productivity trends proceed:
The stagnant GDP numbers continued to generate more discussion in regards to the query: “Is it a recession or not?”
Yes, we’re still talking a couple of recession. Just a couple of weeks ago, former Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said“I would say we are in a recession, I wouldn’t even call it a technical recession.” A technical definition is a superficial definition that you’ve gotten negative growth two quarters in a row, and we did not have that, but the rationale “The reason for this is that we have been flooded with new immigrants who are buying the essentials in life and that is giving a boost to our consumption.”
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Oil prices remained below $85 a barrel
Although we were right here, it could seem obvious on reflection. It’s easy to forget how optimistic some investors were about oil twelve months ago. At the tip of December 2023, Barclays forecast a median WTI price $93and Bank of America predicted 90 USD. We can be found if either of those two institutions would really like us to guide their fossil fuel analyst teams.
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Cryptocurrencies could also be volatile, but they ended 2024 up 50%
Direct hit! As you will find out as you read on, we didn’t do every part right this yr. We definitely couldn’t have predicted that a presidential candidate would do that Buy a big stake in a cryptocurrency companythen stop saying Bitcoin is a “Fraud” take a couple of Quarter billion dollars from the crypto industry and becomes its biggest supporter.
Bitcoin actually fell greater than 25% from March to August in 2024, before the present rally fueled by President-elect Donald Trump. This event has caused Bitcoin to rise 125% because the starting of the yr. Although we predicted the BTC rally, we remain as skeptical as we were a yr ago. To make it into my portfolio, an investment should have profits and/or money flow, and BTC has neither.
