Why Trump’s Social Security Tax Repeal Could Accelerate Bankruptcy

Former President Donald Trump’s plan to eliminate the tax on social advantages would cut back taxes for U.S. households by a median of $550, in keeping with a brand new evaluation from the Tax Policy Center. But this tax cut would come at a high price: By cutting Social Security and Medicare (HI) revenues by $1.5 trillion over the subsequent decade, Trump would drive each programs into insolvency more quickly, leading to significant profit cuts for tens of tens of millions of recipients.

Winner and Loser

TPC estimated that lower-income households would see little or no profit from the tax cut in 2025. Those earning $32,000 or less wouldn’t receive a tax cut because most of their Social Security advantages are already untaxed. Those earning between $32,000 and $60,000 would receive a median tax cut of about $90.

In dollar terms, the most important winners could be those in the highest 0.1 percent of income earners, those earning nearly $5 million or more. They would receive a median tax cut of nearly $2,500 in 2025. But when it comes to net income, the most important beneficiaries could be middle- and upper-middle-income households, those earning between $63,000 and $200,000.

One reason for this apparent inconsistency is that Social Security advantages often represent a big share of the income of middle-income households. Thus, eliminating the tax on these advantages reduces their average net income by a bigger percentage than it does for very high-income households, which receive a comparatively small share of their total income from Social Security.

Less than 1 percent of the lowest-income households (those earning about $33,000 or less) would profit from any tax cut in any respect. But about 28 percent of middle-income households would profit from a tax cut. Among the highest 0.1 percent, about 20 percent of households would profit from a tax cut.

TPC’s evaluation included all Social Security advantages, including survivors and disability advantages, and pensions. Due to data limitations, it was impossible to interrupt down taxpayers by age.

Trump announced his idea in a sentence on his Truth Social site. Remember that he doesn’t have the Social security income taxwhich is paid by current employees to finance social security and Medicare HI Trust FundRather, he would current tax on social security Advantages, This is paid by individual recipients earning $25,000 or more annually ($32,000 for married couples), who currently must pay taxes on half of their Social Security advantages. This income is used to support the Social Security retirement fund.

The costs of Social Security and Medicare

Welfare recipients with annual incomes above $34,000 ($44,000 for married couples) must pay an extra 35 percent tax on their advantages. This income goes to support Medicare HI.

Abolishing the tax, which has been in force since 1984 and expanded in 1994, would speed up the upcoming insolvency of each trust funds. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates Social Security would must cut promised advantages by 1 / 4 if the tax were eliminated. Its pension fund wouldn’t turn out to be insolvent until 2032, not 2033. The Medicare HI trust fund wouldn’t turn out to be insolvent until 2030, six years sooner than under current law.

Lower taxes, fewer social advantages

Not only would low-income households be spared from tax relief, they’d even be financially burdened if the social security system were to turn out to be insolvent. A current evaluation The study by my colleagues Richard Johnson and Karen Smith on the Urban Institute found that even under current law, a Social Security default would cut back median annual advantages by $5,900 by 2045 and push 3.8 million retirees into poverty. The incomes of the lowest-income 40 percent of households would fall by one-fifth.

And they analyzed the present legal situation. The situation for low-income older people would get even worse if the Social Security tax were abolished, which might exacerbate and speed up this system’s financial problems.

The elimination of the tax on Social Security advantages contradicts Trump’s months-long promise to oppose any cuts to this system. Republican Party Platform 2024orchestrated by Trump, it says in capital letters: FIGHT AND PROTECT SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICINE WITHOUT CUTS, INCLUDING CHANGES TO THE RETIREMENT AGE.

It is noteworthy that Trump also proposed the deportation of tens of millions of immigrants, a lot of whom Improving social security funds because they work and pay payroll taxes but probably don’t receive Social Security advantages. Now he desires to eliminate the tax on Social Security without offering any proposal for bolstering the retirement system by raising taxes or otherwise restructuring Social Security advantages. This is the most recent example of how his agenda would inevitably result in the very cuts to Social Security that he vows to fight.